a completely random process and FOREX.
Want to know where your chart goes next? =)
There's a 50% chance of guessing. Does it look like it's going down? It could go up and still look right.
to D.Will
Tell me scholarly man, and on eurusd there are also quotations with the level of e.g. "-0.2". And who in this case owes who all the money in the world?
Tell me scholarly man, are there also quotations on the eurusd with a level of e.g. "-0.2". And who owes who all the money in the world in that case?
Tell me scholarly man, are there also quotations on the eurusd with a level of e.g. "-0.2". And who owes all the money in the world to whom in this case?
But how much imagination do you need to have, for example, 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 sequential simulations of series length, like this one?
In other words: Are you sure that taking the real starting level of eurusd of the seventieth year and modeling quotes in this way, you will not go in the red and crush all world foundations with this model (which has nothing to do with the Forex model)?
In other words: are you sure that by taking the real starting level of eurusd and modelling quotes in this way, you will not go in the red and crush all the foundations of the world with this model (which has nothing to do with the Forex model)?
The other issue is that this is not a "forex model", it is another approach to the question of whether forex is random or not. It is not a simulation of quotes, but a simulation of the dynamics of a certain process, and for some reason it is painfully similar to a price chart. And there is only one main question how much is "similar"?
In other words: are you sure that taking the real starting level of Eurusd and modeling quotes in this way you will not go down and crush all world foundations with this model (which has nothing to do with the Forex model)?
The other issue is that this is not a "forex model", it is another approach to the question of whether forex is random or not. It is not a simulation of quotes, but a simulation of the dynamics of a certain process, and for some reason it is painfully similar to a price chart. And that leaves only one main question - how "similar"?
For myself I already answered this question long time ago - this model is not like that according to many objective factors, but this is my personal opinion (and it should be understood that I'm not imposing anything). By the way, it is possible that this model will be used not only to simulate quotes, at least, will lead the finger on the chart, cluck your tongue and say "how similar", but also to simulate some, say, financial indicators. So you'd better do your best to calculate the probability of "local" trends in such a model. You should specify your own limitations and definition (for example, what to consider a trend). As a result, you may come to interesting conclusions.
PS: A huge number of natural and technical processes are similar to quotes in appearance. So what?
And that makes the model acceptable? Take a different quote.
PS: A huge number of natural and technical processes resemble quotes in appearance. So what?
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r=NORMRND(0,0.0077,1,1000);
for i=2:1:length(r)
r(i)=r(i)+r(i-1);
end
figure;
grid on;
plot(r);
expectation 0. variance 0.0077. these parameters are analogous to real eurusd.
But it doesn't matter - the nature of dependencies is very similar to something.
The picture is taken at random. 1000 values is almost like 4 years.
What can we say about the obtained data?
1. Before large movements, a reduction in the spread of values.
2. After large movements, pullback.
3. There are FIBO levels. It is clear, each subsequent value is equal to the sum of its previous values.
4. There are resistance and support lines.
There are even breakdown levels =).
find ten differences