FreedomRocks IntraDay Method

 

Hello folks,

I have been looking with interest at the FreedomRocks trading model over the last year or so and although it has its flaws, the overall concepts that have to do with currency pair correlations and hedging are sound...not to mention that it works profitably most of the time! With good MM and banking profits regularly, you can weather most any storm or drawdown or at least live to trade again if it blows.

Now, whereas the actual FR system is a long-term method, my thoughts are that perhaps an INTRADAY model based on the FR grid/hedge setup could easily be developed and implemented/tested on an MT4 platform. I have been demo testing my ideas on this manually, but only for the last few days on an FX SOL demo account which involves manual upkeep and daily order resetting/monitoring. The forward/backward testing could greatly be streamlined on MT4 with a very simple EA.

Here's the parameters of what I have in mind:

#1. Use only the 4 majors, trading 1 full $100k lot per pair @ 400:1 leverage at FX SOL:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY

#2. Take ALL LONG or ALL SHORT (either way, shouldn't matter provided they are ALL SAME WAY) positions daily after swap is paid. I use roughly a total of 10% equity split between the four.

#3. Set 60 pip TP and a 40 pip SL for each daily order. These settings may be adjusted according to the daily range of each pair and/or other discetionary market conditions (ranging/trending?), but these are what I'm using right now.

#4. I generally place orders with FX SOL after 5pm EST to avoid swap and close them before NYSE market close next day if TP/SL have not triggered. Right now, I'm just letting price action determine win/lose to keep it very mechanical, but there can be situations where trader discretion and intervention is beneficial.

That's basically it....I set a 60 TP and 40 SL for each of the four pairs and let price determine the winners/losers. There are five possible scenarios with this setup as follows (correct me if I missed any).

#1. Two Winners - Two Losers = Net +40 pips

#2. Three Winners - One Loser = Net +140 pips

#3. All Four Winners = Net +240 pips

#4. Three Losers - One Winner = Net -60 pips

#5. All Four Losers = Net -160 pips

Considering the relative historical correlations between these four pairs, there seems to be an overall balance leaning towards Scenario #1, but we all know that the correlations fluctuate and come in and out of normal "sync" from time to time. However, if you look at this model purely from an "odds" standpoint, and I'm no expert there, it seems to me you have a 3 in 5 chance of coming out a winner just based on the ratios of winner/loser scenarios. I believe the actual odds may even be better than 3:5 because of the additional weighting of the pair correlation factor. Maybe someone good at crunching numbers might do a calculation on that to factor in the correlations? Plus, the three winning combinations are overall worth more potential gains than the losing ones. The numbers alone make this an interesting strategy that I think is well worth testing, if it hasn't already been done.

Now, I would very much like to know if there already exists a simple EA that I can use which will allow me to set fixed TP/SL values, set a repeating daily order entry time and also automatically close out the open orders from the previous day at a time I would specify. I wouldn't think this would be a very difficult EA to code as there are only basic, already used functions involved. I would need to be able to attach the EA to four separate charts and just let them run to see how it works out.

Can anyone point me to an existing EA I can use or can someone write a simple EA to test this method? Any well thought out comments/criticism is welcomed!

Thanks and happy trading to ALL!!

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Most Recent Version post in this thread for FR-Intraday EA:

FR-Intraday_v1.1.ex4

Previous Version Posts:

FR-Intraday_v1.0

FR-Intraday_v1.01

NOTES for v1.1:

This EA needs to be installed on the EUR/USD chart ONLY and it doesn't matter which TF. The inputs default to the IBFX currency pair labeling format (EURUSDm), so you will need to eliminate the lower case "m's" from the pair labels unless you are using IBFX's platform. It will automatically place orders for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY pairs from the EURUSD chart.

The order placement timing inputs I haven't totally figured out yet. I set the start hour to "1" and the ending hour to "13", trying to miss the bulk of the Asian session. However, the EA placed the trades at 4:00am GMT+2 broker time. If we assume that start hour "0" would be GMT, then a setting of "1" should have placed the trades at 3:00am for a GMT+2 broker. So, at this point, just play with the start time on your broker platform until you figure it out.

Also, you need to either disable the EA after it places the initial entry orders for the day or set the Time_End input to one digit greater than your Time_Start input. I'm not sure yet whether the EA will close out it's open orders (I don't think it does...), so you'll have to monitor them throughout the day to see if/when you should close them out.

Hopefully, we can mod the EA to correct these issues in a later version. We also hope to have a Trailing Stop function added at some point. The current v1.1 is functional for the purposes of testing this method in MT4 with the above workarounds. Our thanks to Guyver for his contribution of this EA to this project!!

Most Current Version Attached:

 

interesting strategy.

an EA would effectively be great for such strategy in particular to back test it.

 

Hi.

If this works, then trading just one of the pairs the same way have to work also because you are doing the same thing on all pairs and your profit (or loss) is the average of the four pairs.

That is almost the same as saying a long or short entry with 60 pips tp and 40 pips sl will work on average in the long run on just one of those pairs also.

That again is almost the same as saying a random entry with those targets and stops will work. I am saying "ALMOST" because i see your point about correlation.

I am not saying that will not work because i don't know but from my point of view you will have a better edge if you do this on one (or maybe all four) pair but only take the trade in the directoion of the longer term trend and that will probably not always be the same direction on all four pairs.

It don't have to be the trend but you have to give yourself a edge of some sort on the single trades.

I am not trying to be negative or something here i am just thinking logic (or trying to...)

Am i missing something here?

If i am missing something i guess that must be something about the correlation i don't see clear enough but why will there be more winners on average just because the pairs are correlated if you don't have a edge on the seperat single pairs.

Because if you don't have a edge on the single pairs then you will not have a edge on average over all four pairs.

Or am i wrong...? (i have been wrong many times in my life, probably more often than not, so that is absolute possible.... lol )

Arctic4x

PS: Maybe all you need is a edge on one of the pairs and the correlation will do the rest? (but then i guess you will need a VERY strong correlation because you have to overcome the spread on four pairs)

 
Melpheos:
interesting strategy. an EA would effectively be great for such strategy in particular to back test it.

My thoughts exactly...thanks for your comments!

 
Arctic4x:
Hi.

If this works, then trading just one of the pairs the same way have to work also because you are doing the same thing on all pairs and your profit (or loss) is the average of the four pairs.

That is almost the same as saying a long or short entry with 60 pips tp and 40 pips sl will work on average in the long run on just one of those pairs also.

That again is almost the same as saying a random entry with those targets and stops will work. I am saying "ALMOST" because i see your point about correlation.

I am not saying that will not work because i don't know but from my point of view you will have a better edge if you do this on one (or maybe all four) pair but only take the trade in the directoion of the longer term trend and that will probably not always be the same direction on all four pairs.

It don't have to be the trend but you have to give yourself a edge of some sort on the single trades.

I am not trying to be negative or something here i am just thinking logic (or trying to...)

Am i missing something here?

If i am missing something i guess that must be something about the correlation i don't see clear enough but why will there be more winners on average just because the pairs are correlated if you don't have a edge on the seperat single pairs.

Because if you don't have a edge on the single pairs then you will not have a edge on average over all four pairs.

Or am i wrong...? (i have been wrong many times in my life, probably more often than not, so that is absolute possible.... lol )

Arctic4x

PS: Maybe all you need is a edge on one of the pairs and the correlation will do the rest? (but then i guess you will need a VERY strong correlation because you have to overcome the spread on four pairs)

I think I see the point of what you're trying to say, but I think you are overlooking the high correlation rates between these paris. Look at it from this perspective... If you take a LONG position on these particular 4 pairs....then GENERALLY....within 24 hours you will have a price movement separation between them. Due to their highly correlated price movement patterns, you will more often than not have two that go north and two that go south. It's not always enough of a movement to hit my chosen TP/SL targets, but I think those numbers are close enough for most market conditions. The rest is basically the "odds" part of it. No one knows where price is going to go, but the odds are that if we position ourselves on these four majors with the TP/SL setup I've outlined, there we should stand a better than average chance of winning positive pips over the long haul. It's just a theory of course, but one I'd like to test and MT4 is the way to go.

I seriously don't think it would take 15 minutes for someone to code a basic EA suitable for demo and backtesting. Any takers??

 

Thats a great thing you are trying.

But in order to make a decent strategy you will have to watch market for years and get used to it.

The thing is its totally rude to say that we want 60TP on EUR/USD and 60TP on GBP/USD. Its totally horrible to think that we want a 40SL on both.

I think you spent too much time watching the movement and forgot about 1 minor thing. GBP/USD is almost twice as expensive as USD/CHF. That means it moves almost 2 times more. Its the most active of 4 major pairs. You should also have noticed that its not the correlation of the move of major currencies.

Its the move of USD in these currencies.

So we go long on GBP/USD if GBP is going up and USD is either sitting or falling.

We go long on USD/CHF when USD is going up and CHF isn't.

If we go long on all 4 mayors, most likely we will have a loss on cable in an instant (that isn't true for current market because of flat period but it is true for active periods with 150+ pip moves per day).

The second thing we might get is a TP or SL on one of other pairs. But if you don't follow anything else than random movement, you will most likely get this scenario:

-60 -60 -160 +40 +40 -60 -60 +40 +40 -60

Still wanting to trade this strategy?

Learn MQL4, write an EA for your strategy, test it on 3 year history. If it makes profit, share it. Otherwise its a waste of forum's space and a waste of our time.

As an alternative, test it on the paper.

 

hi...

I know this is off topic.....but what is this FreedomRocks stuff...it seems to be popping up on a couple of threads...I thought it was a signal provider...so why is its name comming up here on the name of a thread.

Maybe there a advertiser on the forum if so ok...but if not..seems to be creeping in by stealth....

And thats not taking anything away from the topic....Just why the need for the Name..?

 
Angler:
hi...

I know this is off topic.....but what is this FreedomRocks stuff...it seems to be popping up on a couple of threads...I thought it was a signal provider...so why is its name comming up here on the name of a thread.

Maybe there a advertiser on the forum if so ok...but if not..seems to be creeping in by stealth....

And thats not taking anything away from the topic....Just why the need for the Name..?

No problem. FreedomRocks is a MLM company that offers a grid type trading system. They don't sell signals per se, but they do have a web-based system that a member can log into which will give you your take profit and entry targets based on your input of trade data from your own account. It's not a trading robot either, as many seem to think, because there is no direct interface between FR and your account. I do not subscribe to their system, but I am quite familiar with it as I have friends who are members.

The idea I have presented here is loosely based on their system. However, the actual FR system is a long-term hedge/grid setup, whereas my idea is more of an intraday focus.

 

Copies of my FX SOL Demo statement....

Currently, I'm on my 5th day of trading this method and I'm in profit so far. My first two days were 2 winners/2 losers, third day was 3 winners/1 losers, and 4th day was 3 losers/1 winner.

You may find some order entry mistakes on the statement and I also forgot to close out my EUR/USD position on Friday. For these reasons and others, I would prefer to automate this strategy on MT4 to help eliminate human error and the temptation to inject discretionary intervention in the process.

Here are copies of my demo account with FX Solutions.

 

Thanks, but RUDE doesn't help...

My apologies if I have misunderstood the tone of your post, but you first tell me "Thats a great thing you are trying." Then you go on to say that I need to backtest this more and "prove" it before I come here. That just doesn't make sense considering the thrust and title of this SECTION...

 

I'm posting the actual numbers here in text form because the statements are a bit difficult to read.

RESULTS:

TUE 7/10/07

GBP/USD +60 pips $600.00

EUR/USD +60 pips $600.00

USD/JPY -40 pips -$325.34

USD/CHF -40 pips -$329.82

WED 7/11/07

GBP/USD +60 pips $600.00

EUR/USD -40 pips -$400.00

USD/JPY +55 pips $451.19

USD/CHF +25 pips $207.71

THUR 7/12/07

GBP/USD -40 pips -$400.00

EUR/USD +31 pips $310.00

USD/JPY -41 pips -$336.48

USD/CHF -40 pips -$332.81

FRI 7/13/07

GBP/USD +60 pips $600.00

EUR/USD 0 pips $000.00 (-$18.38 swap, position carried over weekend)

USD/JPY -43 pips -$422.92

USD/CHF -40 pips -$399.93

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Last Week:

Total NET PIPS = +27 pips

Total Profit/Loss = +$403.22

ROI = 4.03%

Notes: There has been some discretion and human error involved in the testing process thus far. I am hoping that by using an EA on a MT4 platform, this would be eliminated in the testing phase. I have one person currently working on an EA for this strategy and I've just sent them the basic elements I think are needed to do proper testing, so we'll see how it goes!

Reason: