AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 13.12 - 20.12: correction for the possible bearish reversal

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.14 08:18

With no major domestic data scheduled on this week, CBA's Chief Currency Strategist Richard Grace believes markets will be paying close attention to movements in the Chinese renminbi given the PBOC signaled on Friday its intention to change the way it will manage the value of the CNY moving forward.

"The PBoC signaled its intention to change the way it will manage the value of the CNY by potentially loosening the peg to the USD and starting to track CNY against a trade-weighted basket of currencies," wrote Grace.

From the technical point of view - intra-day price (H4) is on ranging market condition: the price was bounced from 0.7159 support level to be between 100 SMA/200 SMA area breaking 23.6% Fibo level from below to above for 50.0% Fibo level as the next target:

• if the price breaks 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 0.7246 to above so the reversal of intra-day price to the primary bullish market condition will be started;
• if the price breaks 0.7159 support level so we may see the bearish market condition for this pair on intra-day H4 chart;
• if not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.14 14:08

AUD/USD: short-term strategy, long-term strategy and the levels to watch - Swiss Finance Corporation (based on the article)

• Short-term strategy: "Negative below 0.7240/7310 with scope for limited losses ahead. Short strategy off 0.7250 is stil in the money. Reconsider booking profits on downticks or stick to shorts with stops trailed down to entry level, targeting retest of recent lows."
• Long-term strategy: "No change. Positive above m/t support @ 0.7020. Sustained break above 0.7720 opens 0.7380/7440 (partially met)as next targets. Sharp rejection off 0.7380 signals bull exhaustion and possible top in place. Book profits on upticks or trail stops up to 0.7160."
  
• Levels to watch: "0.7160 on the downside 0.73 on the upside."

As we see from the chart above - the price (H4) is ranging between 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA waiting for direction.

• If the price will break 0.7262 resistance level on close H4 bar so the bullish trend to be started on this timeframe.
  
• If price will break 0.7158 support on close H4 bar so we may see the bearish market condition for this intra-day price.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 0.7158 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 0.7262 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging