The single currency decreased after the market opening against the dollar. The Austrian Legislative Election brought new uncertainties...
The US dollar experienced another broad-based sell-off last Friday amid disappointing inflation and retail sales data. Commodities currencies benefited the most of this renewed USD weakness as investors discounted an aggressive Fed rate path. The single currency rose 0.58% to 1...
The sharp rise in crypto-currency valuations in recent months is a speculative bubble, says UBS Chief Investment Office (CIO). Over the last 25 years, more central banks have become politically independent. Over the past 25 years, inflation has been brought under control...
Why is inflation low? The best argument is that independent central banks (run by economists) are good at their job. Over the last 25 years, more central banks have become politically independent. Over the past 25 years, inflation has been brought under control...
The Ottawa round of NAFTA negotiation have turned nasty. The first causality has been the driving ethos of globalizations and cooperation, replaced with strong protectionist bias. In this negative environment, missteps were bound to occur...
Brexit Negotiations are back into centre stage. The EU 27 Leaders are meeting today in Brussels to discuss about the further trade agreement with the UK. This promises to be intense as 27 Countries that must agree seems like a very difficult task...
The US dollar has reversed gains as investors’ confidence in Trump’s tax reform fell again. After sliding as much as 1.50% since the beginning of the week, the dollar index consolidated slightly above 93 on Friday morning...
There is scant chance that the Euro will breach CHF 1.20 before the European Central Bank meeting on monetary policy of 14 December, but after that? A crawl-back to 1.20 – which the Swiss National Bank held as a floor until in early 2015 it let the franc float – could be on the cards...
Oil-exporters’ cartel OPEC has released its outlook for crude to trade at US$55 per barrel in 2018, about 4% higher than its current ‘reference basket’ price. We are not so sure...
What was expected to have been a bold declaration of independence turned out to be a weak statement. Catalan’s President Puigdemont held back from a total declaration of independence merely stated that he had the right to do so...
The week has been pretty light in term of economic data so far. Today is different as the minutes of the September FOMC meeting are due for release later today...
Silver has strongly bounced back since the start of October and is back above 17$. The precious metal has been very volatile lately. The price of precious metals such as Gold and Silver have been weighed down by the number of “paper” contracts banks have used and abused over the last decade...
We suspect the markets is underestimating the risk involved with the Catalonia independence movements. EURUSD 1 month implied volatility continue to decline despite potential event risk. Markets generally price the most obviously path of events...
After experiencing a solid recovery in the second half of September the US dollar reversed gains, partially at least, and started the week on the back foot. The dollar index traded as low as 93.43 before inching up to 93.54 in late Asian session...
The Australian dollar held steady on Monday morning after tumbling more than 1% against the US dollar last week. The release of disappointing local economic data together with improving US ones, encouraged investors to unwind long AUD position...
Tensions are growing between the United States and Turkey. Last night, both countries have suspended part of their visa services. Indeed, an employee of the US embassy has been arrested on charges of espionage at Istanbul...
Next week CIO's focus will be on inflation. The US, Germany, Sweden, and Norway will publish their latest consumer price data. These are important inputs for the Fed, the ECB, and the Riksbank, which CIO expects will tighten monetary policy over the coming six months...
Inflation may have stayed low in recent years simply because independent central bankers are good at their jobs. Increasingly independent central banks helped lower inflation rates around the world. This is one reason economists have expected low inflation while central banks printed money...
