A-B-C-D Trade - page 130
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EUR/USD Monthly Chart
Low = Nov 2005 1.6400
High = July 2008 1.6038
Aqua color horizontal lines are retrace fibs.
- Market behavior respected these fibs as S&R. From high, pair retraced 78.6%. Now back at 50% fib area and near trend line, both acting as resistance.
-Plot using more recent high/low of Nov 2009/June 2010 has 61.8 fib just about where price ended week.
Yellow color vertical lines are fib time intervals.
- Current month of Mar 2011 is the 100% fib in time. The time distance from Low to High was 32 months, and we are now at the 32-month interval from the High.
Pink diagonal is trend line from highs of July 2008 and Nov 2010.
- Pair met this as resistance last week.
Dotted horizontal lines are intervals of SQ_9 indicator.
- We can see pair make a hit at the 720-degree level to establish the High, which is twice the 360 figure recognized by W.D. Gann as a full cycle.
- Although we are currently at the 405-degree level based on the original plot, if we changed the start price to the low (1.1875) of June 2010, we are precisely at the 360-degree level.
Yellow Numbers at Peaks
- We labeled peaks with 0, 16, and 32, just to point out the smaller interval that might be important. This is a zoom-in on 31-month cycle/interval as outlined Mar 7th in post 1253.
- When we apply the fib time to the peaks of July 2008 and Nov 2009 (the 1st peaks in down trend), we arrive at the .382 on May 2010, the .618 at Sept 2010, and the 1.0 Mar 2011.
***
All of these observations deal with sequential intervals. If we interpret the 3 dimensions correctly, height (price), width (time), and diagonal (space), then it is time for a pullback starting in March.
This would be contrary to the fundamental analysis (one version) which sees a strong possibility of an interest rate hike in the Euro Zone starting in April. That would tug EUR/USD upward.
Based on recent low to high, the extension levels above are:
the 138.2 is the same as the level reached Nov 2009,
the 161.8 is near the 720-degree High.
Our deepest sympathy and spiritual support go out to the victims of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
EUR/USD Daily
Aug 31st low to Nov 4th high (no Saturdays) = 56 days
Nov 4th high to Jan 9th low (no Sat) = 56 days
Jan 9th + 56 days (no Sat) = Mar 15th (tomorrow)
assume that it will have huge buy and touch 1.4200 "s ??,, great!!!!! can happen , but this great disaster will stop volume ??
It will not affect volume. Forex is largest market in world with more than USD 3 Trillion per day in trade. International transactions withstand any single event.
EUR/USD bounce off day's high now at 50% retrace fib. We saw market make close of gap (from Friday's close to Sunday;s open) prior to ascent and retracement.
Be advised that 1.3956 is 50% fib of major plot;
High = 1.6038 (Jul 2008)
Low = 1.1875 (June 2010)
The bounce off trend line lasted 4 days.
After upward move Friday and gap up Sunday open, we notice that market is uncomfortable above this 1.3956 level. We are currently near this price again.
The gap at week's open was a Sunday Doji, Monday's candle is also indecisive thus far, with small candle body.
It has just been reported that there is damage to the Fukushima #2 reactor container. This is contrary to reports early in the day, albeit from a American "expert", that this would not happen.
"Radiation leak feared".
BBC News - Japan earthquake: New blast at Fukushima nuclear plant
We are seeing USD strength early Asian.
EUR/USD back down from regular 138.2 extension off of Mar 13th high 1.3976 and Mar 14th low 1.3903.
USD/JPY retraced to its 38.2 of 81.92 and bounced. Early,the Japanese government announced injection into bond market to prop up financial markets and liquidity.
The Nikkei is tanking and threatening to break 9,000.
Markets moving in reaction to live address of situation by Japan's Prime Minister.
He is confirming leak(s) and evacuations. They are still trying to cool and contain. "Possibility of meltdown". *edited by CNBC to "Possibility of leakage".