Does a safe Martingale exist ? - page 7
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for a long time
I try to bet on one direction
then set HEDGE (opp direction) at various level, sometime Limit order, sometime, when I fear that I will lost
as a result, the balance diminish quick -- so I kind of adopt Martingale principles, and I believe there is no SAFE way to bet like Martingale and pip cost and too much entries make the thing worse -- the card analog is kind of
like martingale -- it randomly bet 1 direction
like martingale -- it is not enough to cover pip cost
like martingale -- martingale try to diminish the LOSS, so it is more easy to B/E when there is only a slight rebound
but martingale never consider pip spread cost, and brokers try to get more during quickie volatile time, we can't even see the price that we try to enter during those moment
that was my point
for a long time
I try to bet on one direction
................Hi XX3XXX,
For some reason I have a feeling that you did this all manually.
If so then whatever your conclusion would be it is not reliable. Because many people do not stick to an EA and interfear whenever they feel that the EA is not trading according their logics. People who trade manually are even a lot worse. Every trade they trade they do differentaly.
As I said already to Taz, if we want to make conclusions then we need to do this based on a mechanical system that produce results and or backtests that are confirmed by everyone. Meaning that it needs to be programmed into an EA so that the result can be confimed every time we run the test.
Friendly regards...iGoR
PS. There is one element in what you say that is correct: many systems proof to be proftable on paper or theorectical but once you trade them in real then the system does not work anymore because of the trading costs (that is for the majority of the theoretical scalping systems).
Some of the martingale systems are profitable
Some of the martingale systems are profitable
oh really?
please name me one.
oh really? please name me one.
I can't give you any name because these EAs are not commercial.If we are talking about martingale commercial EAs I don't think so that you can find any profitable
Igor,
I like your concept of SL20 and TP60 and have only one trade open. And you open the trade based upon trend indicators each time. It definitely beats the double up or system where you have to wait for a reversal to get out of your trades.
An added diversification might be to go for the first currency pair which has the strongest trend indicators going.
E.g you have lost your first trade due to an SL on eurusd and it closes. But i good trending opportunity comes on AUDUSD and it place a trade in this pair to cover the loss on your EURUSD pair. It has 2 advantages, you might have to wait less long for a good trade to come or you can program the trend indicators better and you are not reliant on one pair.
Maybe your thought where already in this direction anyway. However it does make it impossible to backtest.
if the red bold font below is a sufficient condition to manage the positions, then it is logically NOT necessarily profitable.
if you can be "sure of trend", you will be profitable at 1st place, why bother?
btw, martingale seems HOPELESS to me,
martingale IS HOPELESS to me, if the EA is trading only one direction like Blessing 3.
I don't know if martingale is always HOPELESS, but if it is not, the richest person in the world should be a FX trader. hoho.
......
when there is a clear trend, you release those HEDGED lock , i.e. release it in a way to capitalise the emerging trend
this way, will you have a safe way to make profit ???
BreakThrough In Coin Toss Martingale System
Hi all,
appreciate if anyone can create this excel spreadsheet simulation:
User input:
T= Total number of tosses, e.g. T=1000
W=Winning probability% of each toss e.g. 0.5 (= fair)
N = number of latest tosses without the occurrence of 2 consecutive Heads or Tails e.g, N=7
e.g, For bets on Heads (vice-versa for Tails),
If there is No occurrence of 2 Consecutive Heads within the last N=7 tosses, then on the next appearance of a Head (could be one or more tosses after N), place first bet 1 on the next toss on Heads.
If Heads appears on next toss, +1 is added to Balance Total(cycle ends), otherwise, 1 is subtracted.
If Tails subsequently continues to appear, do not place next bet until the next Head appears.
When that Heads appears, place bet 2 on the next toss on Heads.
If Heads appears on next toss, +2 is added to Balance Total(cycle ends), otherwise, 2 is subtracted.
If Tails subsequently continues to appear, do not place next bet until the next Head appears.
When that Heads appears, place bet 4 on the next toss on Heads.
If Heads appears on next toss, +4 is added to Balance Total, otherwise, 4 is subtracted.
CYCLE ENDs here regardless it is a win or loss.(SAFER martingale)
Wait for the next Non-occurrence of 2 Consecutive Heads or Tails within the latest N=7draws to start the new cycle.
Plot Balance Total chart over T number of tosses.
Thanks,
Scalpmaster
sounds attempting, however, if applied to real trading, it'll be more difficult due to 2 things:
1. commission/spread
2. variable size of price movement
this is easier to write an EA in mt4 than validation in excel, i guess.
CYCLE ENDs here regardless it is a win or loss.(SAFER martingale)
Wait for the next Non-occurrence of 2 Consecutive Heads or Tails within the latest N=7draws to start the new cycle.
sounds attempting, however, if applied to real trading, it'll be more difficult due to 2 things:
1. commission/spread
2. variable size of price movement
this is easier to write an EA in mt4 than validation in excel, i guess.Expectation behind Binary Martingale:
http://www.qbyte.org/puzzles/p082s.html
http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/65495.html
http://www.wilmott.com/messageview.cfm?catid=26&threadid=45491
http://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/statistics.html
http://www.qbyte.org/puzzles/p040s.html
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/probable/flips.htm