During today's Asian session, EUR / USD grew to a new 12-week high near 1.1940. However, further growth of the pair has stalled. At the moment, the pair is decreasing towards the short-term support level 1.1903 (ЕМА200 on the 15-minute chart). EUR / USD maintains long-term positive dynamics, primarily amid the continuing weakening of the dollar. Therefore, the most likely seems to be a rebound from this support level 1.1903 and a return of the pair to an uptrend.
In case of a breakdown of the local resistance level 1.1940 (today's and November highs), the next nearest target will be the local resistance level 1.1960 (August highs). The next target is located at 1.2010 (annual and 30-month highs). Its achievement will increase the likelihood of further growth towards the resistance level 1.2180 (Fibonacci level 50%) and the upper border of the ascending channel on the weekly chart passing through the 1.2340 mark.
In the alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the 1.1903 support level, the pair will continue to decline towards the important short-term support level 1.1868 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), and its confirmed breakdown will increase the likelihood of further decline towards the support levels 1.1815 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1780 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction in the wave of the pair's decline from the level of 1.3870, which began in May 2014).
At the same time, above the key support levels 1.1530 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1450 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), the long-term positive dynamics of EUR / USD remains. Therefore, the decline to the support levels 1.1868, 1.1815 should still be viewed as a rollback after a long rise. And only the breakdown of the support level 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6%) will finally return EUR / USD to a long-term downtrend.
Support levels: 1.1903, 1.1880, 1.1868, 1.1815, 1.1780, 1.1610, 1.1530, 1.1450, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1940, 1.1960, 1.2010, 1.2075, 1.2180, 1.2340, 1.2580
Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1890. Stop-Loss 1.1930. Take-Profit 1.1880, 1.1868, 1.1815, 1.1780, 1.1610, 1.1530
Buy Stop 1.1930. Stop-Loss 1.1890. Take-Profit 1.1960, 1.2010, 1.2075, 1.2180, 1.2340, 1.2580
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