(06 April 2020)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:German factory orders fall less-than-expected.

In the currency markets, the shock on US jobs figures fueled USD purchases on Friday, but the greenback is softer on a slightly improved risk appetite this morning.

The EURUSD traded a touch above the 1.08 handle. The latest CFTC data showed that the net speculative net positions in euro doubled up over the past two weeks, as the single currency rallied past the 1.10 mark. The net euro bets have been positive since the past two weeks only, following a long series of short bets since September 2018. The positive reversal in the direction of bets is often a sign of a medium-term recovery. However, soft economic data remains a major threat to the euro recovery. The German factory orders fell 1.4% m-o-m in February versus -2.4% expected by analysts and 5.5% printed a month earlier. The data will likely get worse in the coming months before it gets better, but better-than-expected figures should give a sigh of relief to investors as the impact of the coronavirus outbreak begins losing steam.

Meanwhile, the coronavirus crisis is a strong test for the European integrity. It will be interesting to see how the EU, which has a history of fiscal austerity, will deal with surging government debt, especially in most indebted peripheral regions including Italy and Spain.

Cable, on the other hand, consolidates near the 1.22 handle. Due today, the UK’s construction PMI may have fallen below the 44 level expected by analysts in March. Any weakness in data should encourage a deeper downside correction in sterling toward the $1.20 mark against the US dollar. On the Brexit deck, there is no progress at all. The coronavirus crisis has wiped out all Brexit discussions, meaning that a delay in the Brexit deadline is now a no brainer. But the separation from the EU is making the handling of the Covid-19 crisis a chunk harder for the UK, which should see a deeper economic recession in the coming quarters than otherwise.

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya