USD/JPY at the Edge

USD/JPY at the Edge

2 July 2019, 12:04
Dorin Petre Rosu
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The US dollar vs. the Japanese yen currency pair bounced off strongly from the 106.88 support, leading to the question whether it's a correction of the descending trend or the first sign of its impending change?

USDJPY D1

Counting by the fact that the hammer candlestick pattern on June 25, 2019, is preceded by candles that signal uncertainty and followed by a strong bullish candle, the first thought could unmistakably be that 106.88 was a turning point. If added the fact that the area marked by the rectangle tends to allay any bearish price action, then the picture portrays a very convinced bullish profile.

But there are certain considerations that must be given the deserved attention. First of all, the current zone represents a triple resistance area, etched by the 108.78 level, the broadenings' support line, and the upper line of the descending channel. The latter seems to be challenged by the bulls, who are trying to continue in the direction of piercing and thus dilute the strength of the resistance in discussion. Nevertheless, it is possible that this attempt will end as a false break, giving the bears their well deserved credit. Secondly, it is easy to see that the impulsive waves of the descending trend are very determined, notable for the recent developments being the two bearish candles - 18 and 19 June - that were not entirely recovered by the seven - emphases on seven - candles that followed.

So, as long as the price oscillates or falsely pierces the aforementioned triple resistance, a new attempt by the bears to break the 106.88 support is to be expected, a fist target after that being 105.80. Only the conversion of the triple resistance to a support will open the door to 109.93.
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