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Monday, June 11th
The EUR/USD pair regained its bullish tone this Monday, while again having broken through the level of 1.1800 in Asia. Today one of the main drivers across the market remains ongoing retreat of the US dollar, additionally underpinned by lack of any positive news from G7 summit, as the US refused to revise its stiff tariffs on steel and aluminum. Moreover, in his tweeter account, Mr. Trump wrote that the US protects Europe at great financial loss (criticizing Germany for insufficiently large NATO payments), while being unfairly clobbered on trade. However, we have a busy week ahead with FOMC, ECB and US-N. Korea meetings, which will have a significant impact on the pair. But today, the economic calendar will remain silent, so markets will continue to prepare for important events.
The GBP/USD pair remains positive this Monday, keeping its positions above the level of 1.3400. The main reason of pair’s recent upside can be called subdued dynamics of the dollar, as US bulls stay cautious ahead of important Fed meeting. However, for the most of the market, the Fed interest rate increase is a done deal, so investors will await for any comments regarding further actions of the regulator regarding its monetary policy. On the other side, further gains of the pound also remain limited, as fresh developments on Brexit are coming this week, which is a notable source of uncertainty for the UK economy. Now all markets attention remains glued to UK manufacturing production figures, which are the only important data for today, so widespread sentiment will remain as an exclusive driving factor during the NA trades.
The USD/CAD pair today opened with a notable bullish gap, while facing support in the area of 1.3000, amid escalated US-Canada trade dispute after weekend's G7 summit. After the US President refused to revise recent trade tariffs, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau stated that Canada would be forced to impose its own tariffs on imported goods from the US. In response to that, Mr. Trump tweeted that PM Trudeau is "very dishonest and weak". This conflict may negatively affect further negotiations on NAFTA, so markets will continue to follow the development of trade relations between the US and Canada. In the day ahead, nothing important will be released from both neighboring economies, so investors will continue to digest recent events.
The AUD/USD pair extends its bullish trend this Monday, having closed its bearish gap and marked its intraday highs on the level of 0.7613. The recent positive trend of the pair can be mainly explained by subdued dynamics of the US dollar, backed by escalation of tension regarding a potential trade war following the G7 meeting, where President Trump said that the US would keep its latest tariffs on metals, calling it a matter of national security. In addition, further actions of the US dollar are seem limited, as US bulls remain cautious ahead of the much-awaited FOMC meeting. It is expected that the regulator will increase its interest rate, but it won’t be a surprise, as markets have already managed to price in a hawkish decision of the Fed. On the data front, today the US data calendar won’t offer investors anything relevant, so broad market trend will remain as a key driver for the pair at the start of this week.
Major events of the day:
UK Manufacturing Production – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1685 R. 1.1853
USDJPY S. 108.86 R. 110.20
GBPUSD S. 1.3318 R. 1.3486
USDCHF S. 0.9746 R. 0.9940
AUDUSD S. 0.7527 R. 0.7663
NZDUSD S. 0.6992 R. 0.7062
USDCAD S. 1.2852 R. 1.3068
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