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Monday, March 12th
The EUR/USD pair trades with a slight bullish bias this Monday on the back of recent mixed data from the US economy. Recall, on Friday the US released bloc of mixed data from the labor market, featuring auspicious NFP numbers and higher-then-expected unemployment rate. These results of the US economy failed to provide the dollar with any notable impetus, as they didn’t indicate any possible changes in further actions of the Fed monetary policy. However, EU bulls also fail to take control over the pair, as divergence between the ECB and Fed is still playing an important role in determining pair’s direction. On the data front, today both economic calendars will keep silence, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, while investors are looking forward the US inflation data, which will be released on Tuesday.
The USD/JPY pair witnessed pretty volatile start of this trading week, having lost about 50 points since today tops, marked near the level of 107.00, due to political scandal in Japan. According to latest reports, Japanese PM Abe’s wife name was removed from the controversy documents, which approves sale of state-owned land at a huge discount. This news sparked significant wave of risk-off sentiments, which in turn appeared supportive to the yen. On the other side, on Friday the US published mixed data from the labor market, with auspicious NFP numbers and disappointing unemployment rate. The market paid little of attention to this release, forcing the US currency to keep its positions unchanged. In the day ahead, nothing interesting is scheduled in the data calendar, so the pair will stay at the mercy of broad market trend this Monday.
The AUD/USD pair remains better bid this Monday, having refreshed its 2-week highs at 0.7873 spot in early Europe. The main reason of pair’s today upside trend remains news that Australia won’t be affected by D.Trump’s metal tariffs that was confirmed by both US President Donald Trump and Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull on Saturday. Moreover, seems that US bulls remained unimpressed by Friday’s mixed data from labor market, where the US unemployment rate came above markets expectations, thus allowing the pair to perform notable bullish rally at the end of the last week. Looking ahead, today the pair will continue to follow market sentiment, as the US calendar won’t offer us anything noteworthy.
The GBP/USD pair tries to extend its Friday’s bullish trend, but still being under pressure of Brexit talks. The UK currency remains weighed by looming Brexit, as markets are still digesting possible “hard” Brexit, where sides won’t be able to reach an agreement on trade deal, which will lead to significant losses from both the UK and EU. On the other hand, slightly positive dynamics of the pound could be explained by Friday’s disappointing unemployment data, which overshadowed strong NFP numbers and sent the US currency lower against its major competitors. In absence of any important data releases the pair will continue to follow broad market trend, while next important event, scheduled in the data calendar, will be US inflation numbers, which will be released tomorrow.
Major events of the day:
None
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2242 R. 1.2364
USDJPY S. 105.77 R. 107.55
GBPUSD S. 1.3739 R. 1.3943
USDCHF S. 0.9463 R. 0.9555
AUDUSD S. 0.7748 R. 0.7902
NZDUSD S. 0.7227 R. 0.7323
USDCAD S. 1.2739 R. 1.2943
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