Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for November 20 – 26

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The table below provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we publish both values in the table.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ17)

The trend is bullish, another correction came to an end last week and the impulse wave develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 15-16.

COT net position indicator increased but didn’t reverse and the major players’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bearish now, the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction formation. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 7-9.

COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators began to sell actively and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Euro (EURUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is upward now, the correction develops. A pullback buying opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 7-9. The next target is around the price mark of 1.185.

Last CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair broke through the support level on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. USDCHF short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 7-9.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling franc and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture. It makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

The market continues to fluctuate on the Daily timeframe between the nearest support and resistance levels. Before the fact of their breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive. Previously opened bearish positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of November 9-13. COT net position indicator increased but didn’t reverse.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair broke through the support level on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is bearish now, the impulse wave develops. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 10-14.

Large speculators go on selling Yen and the professionals’ opinion no longer corresponds to the market technical picture.

WTI Crude Oil (CLF18)

The Daily trend is bullish, another correction came to an end last week, the impulse wave develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 14-17.

COT net position indicator continues to increase, large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

The trend is bullish (for USDCAD), the impulse wave develops. USDCAD long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 9-13. The next target is around the price mark of 0.775.

Large speculators are selling Canadian Dollar and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the current market technical picture.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bullish. The market broke through the triangle formed earlier in the direction that corresponds to the professionals’ opinion. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.

Last CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bullish. The market broke through the triangle formed earlier in the direction that corresponds to the professionals’ opinion. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.

Last CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The market remains in downtrend, the impulse wave develops on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of November 8-10. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.

Large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

The Daily trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of November 8-10. Large speculators continue to maintain the trend and major players’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend, the corection develops. At the same time the market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.

COT net position indicator decreased but didn’t reverse and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are EURJPY, GBPCHF, CHFJPY.

In the near future EURGBP can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.

More information on the topic:

• The role of support and resistance levels in the trading plan
  
• Trading tactics. Breakout trading and pullback trading
• How to use CFTC reports in trading. General concepts
• How to use CFTC reports in trading. The logic of large speculators

Good luck in trading!