First, a review of last week’s predictions:
■ if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, it seems to have decided to meet the expectations of all the experts. Everyone was right - those, who spoke of its growth (from Monday to Tuesday, the pair rose to the level of 1.1616), of its fall (the pair afterwards fell to the 1.1385 support), and of its sideways trend - as a result of oscillations the pair returned almost to the same level from which it started the five-day period. Such an ambiguous behaviour of the pair, as was already mentioned, was largely predetermined by the last week's publication of a series of multidirectional data on the economy of Europe and the United States;
■ as expected, these publications were to influence the behaviour of virtually all USD pairs, which did not allow analysts to reach consensus, including with regard to the future of GBP/USD. As a result, the pair largely repeated the movement of EUR/USD, and, after rising earlier in the week, in the second half it showed a steady fall, returning to the landmark for the entire 2016 year support / resistance zone near 1.4400 ÷ 1.4500;
■ there was no consensus among experts about the future of USD/JPY either. As a result, the pair stayed in the side channel, reflecting the behaviour of EUR/USD and having ended the week virtually where it had been for seven days before - at the level of 107.00;
■ as often happens, USD/CHF also tried to mirror the behaviour of its "older sister" - EUR/USD, but it fully met the expectations of analysts and graphical analysis, who predicted its attempt to get close to the level of 0.9800. The pair, however, failed to reach this height, but its impressive leap up resulted in its getting considerably closer to the cherished goal, as it reached the mark 0.9728.
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Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
■ similar to the last week, the experts' opinions on the future of EUR/USD are split almost equally - one third are for the growth of the pair to a level in the zone of 1.1730 ÷ 1.1800, one third are for its fall towards the support of 1.1200, and another third - for a sideways trend with Pivot Point 1.1400 . The opinions of indicators are also divided - 60% on H4 vote for the pair's fall, and 75% on D1 are for its growth. If we focus on the graphical analysis, there is a preponderance of bearish trend here, according to which the pair must first descend to the first support zone of 1.1340, and then, after breaking through it, go other 100 points lower. The local bottom of the current month is at 1.1000, which should be followed by a return to the Pivot Point of February - May at the level of 1.1280;
■ but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, both the majority of analysts (70%), as well as indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 unanimously vote for the continuation of its fall. The goal is at 1.4250 ÷ 1.4300, which should be followed by a rebound up to the values of last week - 1.4430 ÷ 1.4500;
■ USD/JPY. Here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the movement of the pair in the side channel 105.50 ÷ 108.00. And, very likely, the pair will first rise to the upper boundary of the corridor, after rebounding from which, it will undertake a second attempt to break through the 105.50 support and go down first to the zone of 104.00, and then to the lows of spring and summer of 2014 at the level of 102.00. However, such a movement can take from several weeks to a month;
■ as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything here remains the same - both 80% of experts and 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 continue to insist on the pair striving to consolidate above the 0.9800 level. As already mentioned, the main resistance in this case will be the level of 0.9900. The main support is 200 points lower - 0.9700.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
