What is the outlook for the markets and the euro exchange rate Dollar after the measures put in place by the ECB, and Mario Draghi press conference on 10 March 2016? And what are the prospects for gold and oil for the rest of the year?
The ECB was on the field announcing important measures but the euphoria was then turned off during the Draghi press conference with charts of EURUSD and European stock exchanges that have reversed sharply.The markets have had difficulty digesting many information all along or was it just speculation?
Volatility was high both on the equity front and on the currency. Overall we have seen a relatively strange reaction by the markets, as if everything were given it for granted (whereas the moves yesterday Draghi seem to me decidedly not obvious, beyond expectations in many respects).
My opinion is that this was, at least in part, of an emotional reaction, as if the markets they realized that the ECB, after the moves yesterday, do not remain many other cartridges to shoot.
Despite the recovery towards the area from 1.11 to 1.12 I do not think there is, at least in the short term, room for many more rally by the euro. In fact we are in a phase where the monetary policies of the two central banks (Fed and ECB, ed.) Are widely divergent, so I think that the band from 1.05 to 1.15 can continue to include the euro-dollar rate still for a certain period.
In this case we think that the current euro-dollar listing in some way already would include expectations for the moves of dragons (or at least part of it) and a substantially dove Yellen in 2016. If the governor of the Fed were to touch this year the rates would increase the possibilities for a further strengthening of the dollar, resulting in an approach to equality.
