| 04 March 2016, Time of Writing: 09:00 am |
Trader Daily Market Update |
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| Major Calendar News |
| Time (GMT) | Name | Country | Vol. | Prev. | Cons. | Sentiment |
|---|
| 13:30 | Non-Farm Employment Change | USD | High | 195K | 151K | Positive | | 13:30 | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | USD | High | 0.5% | 0.2% | Neutral | | 13:30 | Unemployment Rate | USD | High | 4.9% | 4.9% | Neutral | | 13:30 | Trade Balance | USD | Med. | -43.4B | -43.8B | Neutral | | 13:30 | Trade Balance | CAD | High | -0.6B | -1.0B | Neutral | | 13:30 | Labor Productivity q/q | CAD | Med. | 0.1% | 0.2% | Neutral | | 15:00 | Ivey PMI | CAD | Med. | 66.0 | 58.2 | Neutral |
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| Vol.: Volatility; Prev.: Previous; Cons.: Consensus |
| Key Support/Resistance Levels |
| H4 | R2 | R1 | Pivot | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1042 | 1.0993 | 1.0923 | 1.0874 | 1.0804 | | GBPUSD | 1.4294 | 1.4231 | 1.4130 | 1.4070 | 1.3970 | | USDJPY | 114.72 | 114.20 | 113.74 | 113.22 | 112.78 | | AUDUSD | 0.7424 | 0.7390 | 0.7338 | 0.7304 | 0.7252 | | USDCAD | 1.3517 | 1.3462 | 1.3416 | 1.3361 | 1.3314 |
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| Latest News |
The worst services PMI data out of the UK in the last three years couldn't stop GBPUSD from rising 1.2% from the lows yesterday. Elsewhere, yesterday's shaky economic data from of the US, which included unemployment claims, nonfarm productivity and factory orders, all disappointed which helped push the USD-Index down 0.6% on the day. The Aussie meanwhile continues trading near the highs of 2016 versus the USD, despite retail sales falling below estimates. Lastly, USDJPY has been stuck in a range for the last couple of sessions, between 113.20 - 114.55, as risk-on sentiment has returned to global financial markets with US stock indexes seeing three consecutive days of gains. The European session will see an absence from any scheduled tier-one data releases, with all investors focusing on the US’ Non-Farm employment report later this afternoon. Sentiment remains optimistic, as the majority of economists forecast another solid employment gain of nearly 200K, while average earnings will be the wild card after last month’s solid 0.5% gain. |
| Daily Technical Analysis |
| | Summary: | Trend: | Momentum: | Daily Target: | Volatility (14D): |
|---|
| EURUSD | BUY | SIDEWAYS | BUY | 1.1000 | 86 Pips | | GBPUSD | SELL | SIDEWAYS | OVERBOUGHT | 1.4065 | 140 Pips | | USDJPY | NEUTRAL | SIDEWAYS | NEUTRAL | 112.55 - 114.90 | 129 Pips | | AUDUSD | NEUTRAL | BUY | OVERBOUGHT | 0.7265 - 0.7415 | 88 Pips | | USDCAD | SELL | SELL | SELL | 1.3350 | 120 Pips |
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| Daily Technical Analysis is conducted using proprietary technology based on advanced methods of time-series analysis and custom build technical indicators. Detailed quantitative analysis of the market state on different timeframes let us accurately evaluate current Trend and Momentum. Going further we deduce the daily target from the multiple factors such as long and short term momentum, different volatility measures, mode of market behaviour and other characteristics. For a ranged market we will show a range instead of a single number. |
| Daily Forecasts |
| | Spot Price* | Last Update | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month |
|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0946 | 03/03/2016 | 1.0820 | 1.09 | 1.08 | | GBPUSD | 1.4157 | 04/03/2016 | 1.4040 | 1.39 | 1.40 | | USDJPY | 113.69 | 04/03/2016 | 114.70 | 113 | 114 | | AUDUSD | 0.7365 | 04/03/2016 | 0.7250 | 0.70 | 0.69 | | USDCAD | 1.3414 | 04/03/2016 | 1.3360 | 1.35 | 1.36 |
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*spot prices as of 07:00GMT Daily Forecasts consists of both technical and fundamental analysis as well as a review of open sources from major FX contributors. |
