Talking Points

• The EURUSD
• Potential bullish targets include a 1-X range extension to 1.4105
• SSI almost reads extreme at -1.94

EUR/USD 30 Minute Chart

 (Created using Marketscope 2.0 Charts)

What is in store for the EURO in 2016?

The EUR/USD is looking to push higher this morning after yesterday’s 232-pip advance. The pair has already ascended as much as 170 pips on the day and is current trading above its R3 Camarilla Pivot at 1.1169. Traders looking for the next point of resistance for the EUR/USD will find it at 1.1235. This value is represented above as the R4 pivot point, and a move through this point would constitute a breakout to a higher high. BY extrapolating 1X of today 133 pip trading range, this potentially places bullish breakout targets near 1.1368.

In the event of a bearish reversal, price action will first need to extend back inside of today’s range. A decline in price back below the R3 pivot mentioned above opens up prices to return towards values of support including the S3 pivot point at 1.1036. It should be noted that bearish breakouts for today begin under 1.0969. A move below this value would be significant, as it would open up the EUR/USD to completely retrace yesterday’s bullish price action. This would signal a significant shift in momentum as yesterday’s breakout would be considered invalidated.

SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) for the EUR/USD currently reads -1.94. With 66% of positions short, sentiment for the pair is just under an extreme reading of -2. If SSI reaches a negative extreme, it can be taken as a bullish confirmation of the current uptrend. Conversely, if SSI moves from its extremes back towards a more natural value, it may signify a shift in momentum for the pair.