Firstly, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- Regarding the forecast for EUR/USD, we can consider it to be, at best, 100% fulfilled and, at the very worst, 95% fulfilled. As had been foreseen, the pair spent the week revolving around the Pivot Point at 1.1200. Acting in accordance with the instructions of graphical analysis, the pair obediently rose upwards at the start of the week, before, also obediently, deciding to change course from north to south. It must be mentioned, however, that the pair’s volatility was lower than we had assumed.
- GBP/USD, according to the forecast, should have tested the minimum level in the 1.5330÷1.5350 region several times over the start of the week, which is what it actually did. This testing ended up being so successful that, after breaching the support level, the pair descended even lower towards the minimum of the first day of summer, defying analysts’ expectations.
- In forecasts relating to the future of USD/JPY, the 45% of analysts and 71% of indicators that predicted the bulls to emerge victorious ended up being… incorrect. Just on 1 September the pair reached the first support level, transitioned into a sideways trend and, having breached the support at 119.50 by the end of the week, continued determinedly downwards.
- As for USD/CHF, practically all the indicators that insisted firmly on its growth ended up correctly predicting its behaviour. The 50% of experts who joined in on this prediction and analysis on D1 managed not to lose to the indicators, even though the pair’s growth was not as rapid as the latter predicted.
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The forecast for the upcoming week:
Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts that are based on the largest possible variety of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- Regarding the future of EUR/USD, the majority of analysts agree that a sideways trend with a main support level in the 1.0925 area awaits the pair. Meanwhile 18% of experts do not discount a breach of this support and the pair’s ensuing descent to1.0812. Indicators on H5 and D1 confirm that the bears possess a certain advantage, whilst graphical analysis does not discount the possibility that the pair will be able to maintain its sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 1.1140 for at least some time.
- For GBP/USD, practically all indicators on all the main time-frames, along with graphical analysis on H1 and H4 talk about a continuation of the pair’s descent to 1.5100. Meanwhile, seeing as the pair is currently located on the lower boundary of a descending corridor, the possibility that we will observe a rebound towards the corridor’s upper boundary of 1.5225÷1.5255 cannot be discarded. In the case that this boundary is actually breached, the pair could change its trajectory towards an ascending one and return into the 1.5325 zone.
- It is not even worth mentioning that all indicators foresee a continuing descent for USD/JPY. On the contrary, however, graphical analysis would suggest that the pair has reached a strong enough support level for a rebound towards 119.80 (predicted on Н1), or even higher to 120.50 (predicted on Н4) to be possible. If we also consider the opinions of 83% of experts alongside the aforementioned forecasts, the pair will, moving in an ascending corridor, rather quickly return to 123.00. The main support level will be in the 118.40 area.
- Talking about the future of USD/CHF, 74% of indicators, 100% of experts and graphical analysis all insist on the pair’s growth in its efforts to achieve the landmark level of 1.0000, which has been ongoing in recent weeks. Such unanimity is definitely a cause for concern, especially if we look at what the pair has achieved in the last 14 days. The key support this week will be at 0.9680, the breach of which will mean that the bears have once again taken the lead and that the achievement of the cherished peak will be delayed for a while.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
