Independent Analyst, Malcolm Graham-Wood, notes that the trimmed US supply forecasts and demand numbers shown in Opec’s monthly report added to oil’s positive momentum.
Key Quotes
“The Opec monthly report was out yesterday but too late for the blog, it did however carry enough good news to maintain the positive momentum for the oil price.”
“Within the report there were two major positives, US supply forecasts were trimmed and demand numbers, including the call on Opec crude were raised. US supply growth has halved on the 2014 increase and non-Opec supply of 850/- b/d is down by 420/- b/d.”
“With demand numbers steadying, up 2.17m b/d for this year and weighted towards the 2nd half ( Q1 demand of 91.38m b/d to Q4 of 93.7m b/d) call on Opec crude of 28.02m b/d in the first half rises to 30.37m b/d in the 2nd half.”
“Readers will know that I expect the oil price to be ‘U’ shaped and rise towards the end of the year as a delayed reaction to the rig count falls and slow burn effect of the fall in investment worldwide to make the bounce more pronounced. Whilst the recent rally will be welcomed by the industry there is a long way to go yet.”
Key Quotes
“The Opec monthly report was out yesterday but too late for the blog, it did however carry enough good news to maintain the positive momentum for the oil price.”
“Within the report there were two major positives, US supply forecasts were trimmed and demand numbers, including the call on Opec crude were raised. US supply growth has halved on the 2014 increase and non-Opec supply of 850/- b/d is down by 420/- b/d.”
“With demand numbers steadying, up 2.17m b/d for this year and weighted towards the 2nd half ( Q1 demand of 91.38m b/d to Q4 of 93.7m b/d) call on Opec crude of 28.02m b/d in the first half rises to 30.37m b/d in the 2nd half.”
“Readers will know that I expect the oil price to be ‘U’ shaped and rise towards the end of the year as a delayed reaction to the rig count falls and slow burn effect of the fall in investment worldwide to make the bounce more pronounced. Whilst the recent rally will be welcomed by the industry there is a long way to go yet.”
