Commerzbank expects gold to bottom out around $1,125 in Q2 of 2015. “We expect the gold price to remain under pressure initially in the first half of next year on the back of growing speculation about increasingly imminent interest rate hikes in the US. The gold price is likely to bottom out at the onset of the cycle of rate hikes in the second quarter. We envisage the price falling to $1,125 per troy ounce on average in the second quarter, though a gold price of below $1,100 is also conceivable for a time. Once the interest rate hikes are underway, the pressure on the gold price is likely to abate, as was the case during the Fed’s last series of interest rate hikes between 2004 and 2006. Gold should then climb, taking support from reviving demand in China and inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).”
“We expect the gold price to remain under pressure initially in the first half of next year on the back of growing speculation about increasingly imminent interest rate hikes in the US,” the bank said in a note today.
“The gold price is likely to bottom out at the onset of the cycle of rate hikes in the second quarter,” it added.
“The silver price next year can be expected merely to move in harmony with the gold price despite currently being at its cheapest level relative to gold for nearly six years,” it said. “Unfavourable fundamental data argues against any better performance.”“The platinum price finds itself close to a five-year low and thus insufficiently reflects the tight supply situation. We do not expect any noticeable recovery of the platinum price in the first half of 2015 because of the weak gold price we envisage,” it said.
“This year already saw palladium respond to the tight supply by gaining more than 10 percent since the beginning of the year and surging for a time to a 13-and-a-half-year high, even though it was ultimately not able to sustain this level. The consolidation process is likely to continue initially, with palladium falling to $750 per troy ounce by mid-2015,” it said.
